How much is Prismatic Evolutions ACTUALLY Worth?
By Eva's Binder
2025-02-08
Overanalyzing shiny cardboard for your viewing pleasure
So, let’s talk Prismatic Evolutions ETBs. This new special set is loaded with Eeveelutions (and hype). People are calling it "the next Evolving Skies," but is that really true? In this article, I'll break down actual pull-rate data, do some quick-and-dirty math on how much the average ETB is worth (a.k.a. the expected value or “EV”), compare it to other recent sets, and share my two cents about whether you should keep yours sealed or roll the dice on opening. Spoiler alert: it’s the biggest gamble I’ve seen in a hot minute in this hobby.
Opening a new Prismatic Evolutions Elite Trainer Box (ETB) is like unwrapping a birthday present – there’s that thrilling uncertainty of what shiny treasures might be inside. As a collector, I love that thrill. But as someone mindful of value, I can’t help but wonder: If I crack open this ETB, what’s the expected haul worth? Is this special set the next goldmine like Evolving Skies, or just another gamble?
Let’s break down the expected value (EV) of a Prismatic Evolutions ETB using real pull-rate data and current market prices, and see how it stacks up. We’ll look at the EV per rarity, call out the biggest hits (and oh boy, are there some big ones), discuss the wild variance in box value, and even compare Prismatic Evolutions to other recent Pokémon TCG sets. By the end, you’ll have a clearer idea whether opening or keeping sealed is the wiser move for your ETB. (Spoiler: it might depend on how much you love Eeveelutions and gambling on luck!)
Pull Rates: How Often Do We Actually See the Good Stuff?
First things first: to figure out expected value, we need to know how often each rarity tier appears. TCGplayer, PokéBeach, and others opened a mountain of Prismatic Evolutions packs to gather the data. We’re going to go with TCGplayer’s pull rate data as it is the most specific, and they have the longest track record of opening packs for pull rates, so they likely have a pretty good methodology. Here’s the TL;DR:
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Special Illustration Rares (SIRs)
- Think alternate art Pokémon ex (“gold ★★” rarity). They pop up around 1 in 45 packs.
- That’s actually twice as good as sets like Surging Sparks, Paldea Evolved, or Obsidian Flames (which were closer to 1 in 85–90).
- BUT there are 32 SIRs in this set (the biggest English set pool ever). So any specific SIR (say, Umbreon ex alt-art) still has insanely low odds: around 1 in 1,440 packs (0.07%). Ouch.
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Illustration Rares (IRs)
- There are no Illustration Rares (think Magikarp from Paldea Evolved) in this set. That alone makes the pull rates feel a bit worse. (In Surging Sparks, for example, IRs appear roughly 1 in 13 packs.)
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Ultra Rares (Full-Art Pokémon ex + Full-Art Trainers)
- Roughly 1 in 13 packs. So in an ETB with 9 packs, you’ve got around a 52% chance to see at least one. More common than SIRs, obviously, but still a nice find.
- (It's too bad this had to be calculated with probability, because naively, 9/13 = 69%, which would've been nice)
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Double Rare ★★ Pokémon ex
- These are the “regular” ex cards. Pull rates are about 1 in 6 packs. In 9 packs, you’d expect about 1-2 of these on average.
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Master Ball & Poké Ball Foils
- New parallel pattern alert! There’s a Master Ball pattern (super rare, about 1 in 20 packs) and a Poké Ball pattern (more common, 1 in 3). So in a 9-pack ETB, you’ve got around a 37% chance of hitting at least one Master Ball foil. If you snag one of the Eeveelutions in Master Ball form – yeah, that’s a potential goldmine (these can go for hundreds).
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Hyper Rare Golds
- These appear at about 1 in 180 packs (0.5%). That’s maybe one gold in 20 ETBs if you open enough product to feed a small country. Don’t count on it. The upside is that these aren’t particularly valuable anyway.
Here are the exact pull rates, source: TCGplayer Infinite
What About God Packs and Demigod Packs?
Prismatic Evolutions is the first set to have proper god packs, and oh boy, are they stacked. Not only do they contain the SIR for every Eeveelution, they also have the Eevee ex SIR and an Eevee Master Ball. There are no clear pull rates for these, but we know that in 1,200 packs, TCGplayer never pulled a single one, which means they are extremely rare.
That said, there are also “demigod” packs, which contain three SIRs that can be any SIRs from the set (no guarantee they’ll be Eeveelutions). Demigod packs were first introduced in 151, so it’s nice to see those continue. TCGplayer states that “Based on the total quantities of cards we found of each other rarity, we suspect there were two Demigod packs in our sample, but we're not able to confirm that number with first-hand accounts.” Likely, the pack openers didn’t realize they had opened a demigod pack at the time. With such a small sample, it’s tough to say definitively, but that could mean around 1 in 600 packs contain a demigod pack.
God packs and demigod packs are great in theory, but generally they make a worse experience for the median pack opener—because a few people will feast while the rest of us starve for pulls. This lines up with most people’s experience with this set: it feels like less than 1 in 45 packs to hit an SIR because so many hits are concentrated in a small number of jackpot packs.
Bottom Line on Pulls
Despite having some “friendlier” odds than recent expansions, the sheer volume of chase cards (32 SIRs plus a zillion Master Ball variants) makes hitting any specific card extremely unlikely, especially with the existence of god and demigod packs. This set is basically a high-variance slot machine: you can get super lucky or strike out hard.
Crunching the Numbers: Expected Value (Per Pack and Per ETB)
Time for some math! (Don’t worry – I’ll keep it simple.)
Where Does the Value Come From?
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Common/Uncommon Bulk
The commons and uncommons in this set are only worth around $0.09 each on average, which is negligible but does add up. At about 7 commons/uncommons per pack, that’s roughly $0.63 per pack if you sell everything. -
Regular Holo Rares (76% chance)
At about $0.16 per rare, you’re looking at $0.12 per pack. -
Double Rare ex (1 in 6)
Prismatic Evolutions has very popular ex cards (especially Eeveelutions!). On TCGplayer, a regular Umbreon ex was going for $12 at one point. Others like Sylveon, Vaporeon, Jolteon, etc. might be in the $3–$8 range, while non-Eeveelutions will generally be less. They average out to $3.79 each.- Contribution to EV: $0.63 per pack.
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Ultra Rare Full Arts (1 in 13)
These include Full-Art Pokémon ex and Full-Art Trainers. Interestingly, they’re less expensive on average than the regular Double Rare ex cards in Prismatic Evolutions (since many Full-Art Trainers here aren’t big hits). They average $2.13 per pull.- Adds about $0.16 per pack.
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SIR (Alt-Art) Cards (1 in 45)
The big hunts: Eeveelution alt-arts and a few alt-art trainers. These can range from $30 to $1,580 (for the Umbreon ex). SIRs account for more than 50% of the total EV, contributing $4.04 per pack on average. -
Master Ball Foils (1 in 20)
If you land an Eevee or Eeveelution in Master Ball form, it might be $50–$300+. A random Pokémon in MB might be ~$5. Overall, Master Balls add about $1.13 of EV per pack. -
Poké Ball Foils (1 in 3)
A less-rare pattern that contributes $0.54 per pack. -
Hyper Rare Golds (0.5%)
While these can average $32, they’re so rare that the EV contribution is only $0.18 per pack.
Summing It Up
Factoring in everything you could possibly sell from each pack—commons, code cards, SIRs, etc.—you get an expected value of $7.96 per booster pack. This is actually pretty impressive for a modern set at release.
ETB Value:
We can extrapolate easily for a 9-pack ETB:
- $7.96 × 9 = $71.66 from the packs
Don’t Forget the Promo!
Each ETB comes with an (admittedly super cute) Eevee promo (~$12). So, total expected value sits around:
$71.66 (packs) + $12 (promo) = ~$83.66
That’s a crazy amount of value for a brand-new set. But remember: “average” is doing a LOT of heavy lifting here. The set’s variance is huge. If you don’t pull an SIR (which is statistically likely in a single ETB), that number drops dramatically. And if you’re paying $110 on the secondary market—yikes!
Variance: Boom or Bust
Let’s say you open one ETB:
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Scenario A: No Big Hits
Maybe you get 2 regular ex cards (total$8), 1 Full-Art Trainer ($2), a minor Master Ball foil ($5), plus your Eevee promo ($10). That’s $25—well under the $50 MSRP, let alone the ~$110 secondary market price. This is a very common outcome, by the way. -
Scenario B: Jackpot
You see that glimmering Umbreon ex alt-art in the final pack and watch your entire box’s value shoot to $1,500+ in seconds. You dance around your living room, ignoring the fact that your other pulls might be worthless.
Most boxes will hover closer to Scenario A, with a handful of lesser hits. But because of the single scenario where you randomly pop a $300–$1,500 card, the average ends up near ~$83. The set is feast-or-famine for sure.
So… Open or Keep Sealed?
Opening for Fun
If you love the thrill and the adorable Eeveelutions (how could you not?), crack it open! It’s your collection, and sometimes fun is worth more than the risk. Just know that purely from a value standpoint, you’re likely to end up with less than you paid. If you only care about specific chase cards, buy singles instead.
Keeping It Sealed
If you’re thinking long-term investment, sealed might be the way to go. Eeveelutions historically have strong collector demand, plus supply for these special sets tends to be more controlled—tends being the keyword.
- Look at Evolving Skies ETBs. They were super cheap after release, but soared to $150+ (and now even higher) once people realized how insane the singles were.
- If The Pokémon Company doesn’t reprint Prismatic Evolutions heavily, sealed ETBs could become quite scarce, especially with that “alt-art Umbreon ex is $1,000+” narrative fueling demand.
The Caveats
- If they reprint heavily, you might not see explosive sealed growth.
- If singles tank once more product hits the market, hype might settle.
- Generally, anything with a strong Eeveelution presence tends to appreciate over time, so I’m leaning on “sealed product might age nicely.”
My personal strategy? I bought two ETBs—opened one (which I mostly regret, but hey, that’s the fun!), and stored the other away. Best of both worlds: joy now, potential value later.
Final Thoughts
Yes, the average EV is around $80–$85—so if you pay $50 (MSRP), that seems good on paper. But the median box outcome is far lower. There’s always that chance to score big (alt-art Umbreon, Sylveon, or Master Ball Eevee). For many of us, that’s half the fun of opening packs anyway. If you want guaranteed value, buy singles. If you like the suspense and can handle losing money, roll the dice on an ETB.
Prismatic Evolutions is shaping up to be one of the wildest sets of this era—breathtaking alt-arts, pricey Master Ball foils, and a truly cursed level of volatility. It could indeed be the next Evolving Skies. Time will tell!
Until then, whether you’re a sealed collector or a fellow degen, I hope this gave you some clarity on what to expect. And if you do crack open a box, I hope you pull a Sylveon, which is my favorite Eeveelution.
–Eva’s Binder
Because who needs money when you could have Pokemon cards?
