Evolving Skies vs Eevee Heroes: A Deep Dive into Pokemon Card Market Trends

Chart go up and to the right

Introduction

Hey fellow Pokémon addicts! With Evolving Skies standing as one of the most popular modern sets and the current hype wave around Prismatic Evolution (particularly the potential of Sunbreon as a "Moonbreon replacement"), now seems like the perfect time to revisit a classic debate in the Pokémon TCG community: English versus Japanese cards.

Interestingly, as 2024 drew to a close and 2025 began, we witnessed a dramatic flip in values between Evolving Skies (English) and its Japanese counterpart, Eevee Heroes. Traditionally, Japanese cards can command higher premiums due to limited print runs and exceptional print quality. But lately, English cards (especially Evolving Skies) have rocketed to levels that match—and sometimes surpass—the Japanese versions. This shift has raised important questions: Why are English cards suddenly outpacing Japanese? Are reprints (or lack thereof) playing a role? What about grading differences in PSA vs. CGC? Let’s dive in and find out!

Data Discussion

The data we will be analyzing today is based on sold listings from (mostly) eBay. We've done our best to ensure it’s as accurate as possible, so we hope that you can glean some knowledge from us! We’re also making this data public at https://github.com/jtj5311/evolving-skies-vs-eevee-hero in case anyone wants to experiment or make visualizations of their own.

Our analysis compares how sales from Evolving Skies and Eevee Heroes have trended over time. Specifically, we’re looking at 90-day trailing averages and 30-day trailing averages (see the bonus graphs at the end!). By taking larger windows to average over, we can cut through the noise of daily price fluctuations and focus on actual market trends.

Market Overview: The Tale of Two Sets

The Pokémon card market has seen significant price movements recently, and while most collectors know the general “up and to the right” trend, we wanted to break down what's really happening with these two popular sets.

By late 2024, Evolving Skies booster boxes were selling for record-high prices, and at the time of writing, the cheapest booster box on TCGplayer is listed for $1350. A major driver was the set’s flagship chase card, the Umbreon VMAX (Alt Art), affectionately called “Moonbreon.” The raw copy alone has spiked to around $1,500.

Why this sudden flip? Market sentiment toward English vs. Japanese cards can shift quickly. Japanese cards often lure collectors with limited print runs and pristine quality, but English sets have massive global demand. As some have pointed out, the absence of reprints for Evolving Skies in late 2024 created a perfect storm, ratcheting up scarcity just as more collectors re-entered the hobby.

Another possible explanation for the stagnation of Japanese cards could be the surge in popularity we have seen in Chinese and Korean cards. They offer a much more affordable alternative to English and Japanese cards. This effect is likely more pronounced for Japanese cards, since many collectors of English cards are less likely to switch languages. Elite Fourum has a great discussion on the topic, available here.

90-day running average price comparison between Evolving Skies and Eevee Heroes JPN

Looking at the overall market data in the chart above, we see Evolving Skies (blue line) demonstrate stronger performance compared to its Japanese counterpart (orange line). While Japanese cards saw significant hype in early 2020 through 2022 (particularly around Eevee Heroes’ initial release), they eventually plateaued as The Pokémon Company in Japan reprinted many products to meet demand. By contrast, the English side did not get the same level of reprints for Evolving Skies, turning it into a red-hot commodity heading into 2025.

Raw Card Analysis

90-day running average price comparison for raw cards

When we isolate raw (ungraded) cards, the story becomes even clearer:

• English Evolving Skies raw cards have shown remarkable growth in the last six months
• Japanese Eevee Heroes raw cards have remained relatively stable or seen only modest gains
• There’s a distinct turning point (late 2024) where English cards begin outperforming their Japanese counterparts

Why the Divergence?

1. Supply Constraints & Reprints

   • Eevee Heroes saw reprints in Japan, preventing extreme price spikes.
   • Evolving Skies essentially went out of print sooner, with no major restocks, causing secondary-market prices to soar.

2. Collector Base & Language Factor

   • English remains the default language for most global collectors, so Evolving Skies benefits from broader demand.
   • Japanese cards, while beloved by many, remain somewhat niche outside Asia (especially for casual collectors).

3. Timing & Hype Cycles

   • As 2025 approached, hype around the new set Prismatic Evolutions (featuring Eevee-lutions) funneled extra interest into all Eevee sets, but Evolving Skies had the edge for English buyers, amplifying demand.

The PSA 10 Premium

90-day running average price comparison for PSA 10 grades

The most dramatic data comes from PSA 10 graded cards:

• English PSA 10s have shown a meteoric rise, continuing into early 2025
• The growth has not shown signs of tapering off, with some chase PSA 10s commanding double or triple the raw price
• Japanese PSA 10s, while appreciating, are not matching the English performance in absolute dollar terms

As many collectors know, PSA is still considered the grading gold standard for maximizing resale value. The brand recognition (especially in North America) gives PSA 10 slabs extra clout, which can account for the higher spikes we see here.

CGC and Additional Grading Insights

90-day running average price comparison for CGC 10 grades

CGC has been gaining popularity, particularly for Pokémon cards. Their stricter centering requirements (and the shift in their grading scale in 2023) mean CGC 10s can be tough to get. One important note: this chart does not distinguish between CGC Gem Mint 10s and CGC Pristine 10s. While CGC Gem Mint 10s don't fetch much of a premium, CGC Pristine 10s have actually begun to demand a premium in some cases.

Still, when looking at the data:

• CGC 10 prices (both sets) generally trail PSA 10 prices
• A CGC Perfect 10 or BGS Black Label can fetch wild premiums, but these are extremely rare, and not enough to move the needle.
• For most collectors, PSA remains the default if you want top resale value, though CGC is closing the gap slowly

90-day running average price comparison for PSA 9 grades

PSA 9 trends are also robust, but the biggest standouts remain PSA 10 slabs of marquee chase cards like the Umbreon VMAX Alt Art. By January 2025, a PSA 10 of that card hovered around $2,800 to $3,000, while CGC 10 copies were slightly cheaper. You can view more info on Umbreon VMAX Pricing trends over time here.

Boom-and-Bust Cycles and What Comes Next

If the late 2024 surge feels familiar, it’s because we’ve seen Pokémon TCG booms before—most recently in 2020–2021. During that period, a combination of nostalgia, influencers (Logan Paul’s base set box breaks!), and pandemic-era free time skyrocketed card values. Then came a cooldown in 2022. Historically, the Pokémon TCG cycle expands during hype phases and contracts afterward, shedding some of the short-term speculators and leaving dedicated collectors to stabilize the market.

How does this apply to Evolving Skies and Eevee Heroes? Both sets feature immensely popular Eeveelutions, which have a proven track record of long-term collector demand. Even if prices correct in the near term, these sets are unlikely to fade into obscurity. The real question is whether a future reprint—or a shift in collector interest—might soften current sky-high prices.

That said, Pokémon’s official stance in Japan suggests they’re willing to reprint high-demand sets (they even apologized in 2023 for product shortages in Japan). But for English sets, once a product is considered out of print, it usually stays that way—adding to Evolving Skies’ scarcity factor. If no surprise reprint arrives, we could see these elevated prices hold, or even climb further, especially if new entrants keep pouring in.

Market Implications and Future Outlook

Putting this all together, here are some key insights for collectors and investors:

1. English Cards Are Dominant—for Now

   • The global player base and collector base give English sets like Evolving Skies a massive audience.
   • Lack of reprints can cause English booster box prices to skyrocket faster than Japanese.

2. Japanese Cards Remain Solid for Rarity & Quality

   • Eevee Heroes is still coveted for its exclusivity and pristine print runs.
   • Japan tends to reprint popular sets, which can keep sealed box prices from spiking too high in the short term.
   • Single Japanese chase cards can still fetch impressive premiums, particularly in top grades.

3. Grading Magnifies Gains

   • PSA 10 is king for resale, but CGC 10, CGC Perfect 10, and BGS Black Label are strong contenders for ultra-premium chase.
   • Keep an eye on how many graded copies flood the market; a surge in PSA 10 supply can temper prices.

4. Watch for Cyclical Corrections

   • Past boom/bust cycles in Pokémon show that mania eventually cools.
   • Cards with strong fundamentals (iconic artwork, popular Pokémon, limited supply) usually rebound after corrections.

Looking Forward

Future analysis will explore English vs. Japanese card performance more holistically, including other modern sets and even some vintage sets for a better long-term perspective. We also plan to keep an eye on the grading landscape—especially as CGC refines its processes and more collectors grow comfortable with CGC slabs.

One final comment: collect what you love! Whether you’re in this for the thrill of the chase, the nostalgic artwork, or as a long-term investment, having a genuine interest in the cards themselves will help guide you through the market’s inevitable ebbs and flows. I (Eva) collect Entei cards, which never ever ever outperform, but it's what I love!!

Methodology Note

All data presented uses a 90-day rolling average to smooth out market volatility and provide clearer trend visualization. This approach helps eliminate noise from one-off sales or temporary market fluctuations, giving us a more accurate picture of genuine market movements.

PS for the nerds: by average, we mean the geometric average, not the arithmetic average. This avoids a common problem that plagues financial data analysis: sales are typically “log-normal.”

PPS for the nerds: think we missed something you’d like to see or believe you can do a better analysis? Our data is available at https://github.com/jtj5311/evolving-skies-vs-eevee-hero for free! If you do anything cool with it, tag us and let us know.

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This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.

Bonus Graphs (30-Day Trailing Averages)

Below are the 30-day trailing average versions of the same charts, which provide a shorter-term view of the market: